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Remembering this point will help you make the transition from thinking in ‘certainties’ as I put it, to thinking in probabilities as Mark describes and as you should be thinking. Essentially, once you place a trade, you need other people traders to want to buy or sell a market at a worse price than you did in order for you to become profitable on that trade. So, if you buy a market at 10 for example, someone else has to want to buy it at 11 or 12, in order to make you a winner. Since you have no idea if that will happen or not, you cannot possibly predict the outcome of any given trade. Remember, all trades are people driven and influenced events, you are not in control. Your trading strategy is only putting the odds in your favor over a series of trades, not guarantying you will win every trade. You can google some of Mark’s videos for more context but he is saying paraphrasing that technical based strategies might historically work more often, but when you focus on a single trade, it does nothing to ensure a winner. However, if you repeat the process multiple times you are more likely to have more wins than not, thus making you profitable if you are good at execution. He uses the gambling analogy himself but wants you to place yourself as the casino instead of the player. The casino makes long term money because with enough repetition, the probabilities likely align with the outcomes. So each single trade is a random gamble, but a large series of random high probability trades increases likeliness of success.
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